Friday, October 14, 2016

Election Musings on a Friday Morning

Sorry for the lapse in posting this week.  It's been a vacation week for me, and, frankly, I have been enjoying myself.

It's that weird time of the political season that, for a blogger, you think you've written just about everything you can write about the election, but, in reality, people are just now starting to pay close attention to the election season.

What's remarkable to me is that election season just seems to get longer and longer, but it seems to get more and more tedious for the voting public.  Now, the voting has started, and the ballots are coming in.  The excitement continues to mount for what might happen on November 8 across Indiana and the United States.

I'm starting to get a more clear picture of what I think might happen on Election Day, and I do think there will be some upsets and razor thin margins in some major races.

With Donald Trump continuing to tank, I think it's quite possible that Indiana may be closer than anyone might believe on Election Night.  I don't think we've found the bottom of the Trump scandal yet as new allegations continue to come out daily.  If Trump is caught on tape or on video with anything similar to what we've already heard in the Access Hollywood tapes, I'm not sure he will have much more support than his most hardcore supporters.  Granted, those are enough to get him some votes, but the moderate Republicans that tend to swing elections in Indiana are likely NOT among those folks.

The best thing for Hillary Clinton to do at this point is just keep on keeping on.  In just about two weeks, this entire election has turned on a dime.  The wind is now at her back, and she just needs to keep sailing.  Michelle Obama hit a home run for Hillary on the campaign trail yesterday.  The President has not been more popular since the first few months of his campaign.  If I were Hillary, I'd keep leaning on them.  As much as possible, I'd keep going high while Trump goes way low.

Here in Indiana, I think Eric Holcomb has probably gained and made a bit of a comeback in this race, but John Gregg continues to run a very good campaign.  I don't particularly care for his latest negative ad, but I think that shows that this race is getting close.  Gregg has a great chance to win on November 8.

Evan Bayh's chances are slipping away, I think.  Bayh has run a horrible campaign and has allowed Todd Young and his minions to define him.  There's only one person to blame for that.  After all, Evan Bayh has been a figure in Indiana politics for 30 years.  The Bayh brand goes back even further.  It's unconscionable that a man so politically savvy could be outflanked by Todd Young.  Election Day cannot come soon enough for Bayh.  I think he can still win, but Hoosiers need to see and hear from their former Governor and Senator in the next few days.  I actually have much more to say about this race, and I'll do so here next week.

Indiana's U.S. House races are also a topic of interest.  Districts 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 would seem to be safe and settled in favor of the incumbent or the incumbent party.  That leaves us with District 2 and District 9.

In District 2, Jackie Walorski is trying to hold off Lynn Coleman.  Initially, it looked like Walorski would be safe, but we've seen the national folks start to take a look at this race.  The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is throwing some help in there for Coleman, and the former South Bend Police Department officer's campaign continues to get stronger.  I don't know if it will be enough to knock off Walorski, but it's enough to bear watching.

In District 9, it's anyone's guess as to who is ahead.  What's clear is Trey Hollingsworth will do anything to get elected.  Hollingsworth has attacked Shelli Yoder in ads by just making things up out of whole cloth about her.  For her part, Yoder has gone high and has attacked Hollingsworth for more documented issues...his carpetbagging and attempt to buy the 9th District seat.  This is a Republican seat, but Yoder's strong run and Hollingsworth's weak candidacy has given Democrats an opportunity.

There's still a lot more to discuss.  I guess that's why I shouldn't take days off at this time in the campaign cycle, right?  That's enough for now, though.

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