Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Reuters Poll Puts Trump Ahead in Indiana

A new poll by Reuters shows that Donald Trump is destroying Hillary Clinton in Indiana, 56 percent to 32 percent.

The same poll shows Clinton with a national lead of six points over Trump, 46 to 40 percent.

If that particular poll holds true, these are very similar numbers that Mitt Romney pulled in Indiana when he got 54 percent of the vote in 2012.  President Obama ended up with 43 percent in the Hoosier State.

Except for Obama's squeaking by John McCain to turn Indiana blue in 2008, this is right in line with where George W. Bush finished in Indiana back in 2000 (56-41) and 2004 (59-39).  In essence, these results are fairly normal for the Hoosier State in this poll.

Hoosiers, don't be dismayed.  This is only one poll.  There have not been too many polls for the Presidential Election in 2016 here in Indiana, so it's hard to know if this is a reliable poll or an outlier. I'm guessing we won't see too many polls on our state for the Presidential race.

What is encouraging is that Hillary Clinton's campaign thinks there is a reason to be in Indiana.  The campaign is still spending resources on voter outreach.  If they didn't believe it was worth it, they would close up shop and pull out.

My only caution is to watch polling carefully over the remainder of the campaign season and look for trends between the same poll rather than celebrating an individual poll.  There is no definitive poll that will tell us what is going to happen when the votes count.

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