John Gregg is the frontrunner in the Governor's race.
Internal Gregg polling shows the Democratic nominee ahead of Eric Holcomb, and Holcomb still is waiting for Mike Pence's money to materialize in his bank account so that he can do more than pet cows and eat elephant ears at the State Fair.
Normally, I wouldn't buy an internal poll, but Susan Brooks's polling said the same thing when she released polling to the Republican State Central Committee.
The fact that I think Gregg is the frontrunner today, August 15, won't mean a hill of beans if he's not the frontrunner on November 8. I really don't believe Holcomb is done nor down and out, but he's going to have to get some serious help seriously quick.
We have yet to see anything out there from Holcomb's fledgling campaign beyond some internet advertising. That can be effective, but he definitely needs to get up and on TV ASAP. Most Hoosiers don't know Holcomb from a deep fried Twinkie. He has no story. He has no identity. He doesn't even have a name if you've watched John Gregg's latest ad where he's simply referred to as "my opponent"and not Lieutenant Governor Holcomb.
The distance back for Holcomb should be short, but Gregg's been on TV for months now. He has built a brand carefully, and he was done a huge favor by Holcomb saying he was going to run on the Mike Pence record and brand. Holcomb had a chance to break from that cleanly and set his own path.
Again, there are still many days to go in this whole thing, but I think I believe the polls that show Gregg up five to seven points in this race. I still rate this thing as a toss up because I really do not believe Holcomb is through, and he has a tremendous fundraiser on board with Suzanne Crouch. They'll raise enough funds.
Much will be determined when Holcomb gets up on the air for the first time with his first ad. If it's an attack at Gregg, you'll know that the Republicans feel desperation setting in. Frankly, the GOP may have no choice. The millions spent by the Republican Governors Association has seemed to do little to shake John's popularity thus far. It's hard to believe Holcomb, a former Republican Party State Chair, can outmaneuver the gregarious Gregg in likability.
Right now, the GOP has to be fearing the mustache and quietly cursing the VEEP nominee.