Monday, May 2, 2016

Too Early to Call Indiana Senate Race Despite Polling

Baron Hill
Todd Young appears to be in the driver's seat to advance to the November election on Tuesday where he will face Baron Hill.

Young leads Marlin Stutzman in recent polling from WTHR and Brian Howey by 12 points.  There still are many who claim to be undecided.  If those undecideds all trend Stutzman's way, he will win, but it's more than likely that Young will get his share, too.

That means in all likelihood that Stutzman goes home and waits two more years for another crowded Senate Primary as the Republicans are sure to challenge Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly.  I would assume someone like Todd Rokita might be interested in that seat, too.  That race, however, is two years into the future.

The same polling showing Young with a huge lead over Stutzman shows him up 18 points over Hill.  That should really concern Baron, but it's still way too early in this one.  I think that number will tighten.  Young's not the sharpest pencil in the box, but he thinks he knows what will beat Hill.  He's done it before.

Hill has a great record against people he's run against before.  He took on Mike Sodrel multiple times for his U.S. House seat.  The voters rewarded him all but once and sent him back to Congress in 2006 and 2008 after he had been defeated in 2004.  Hill will fight Young and take that fight directly to him.

I just hope that the U.S. Senate seat doesn't get lost in the battle between John Gregg, Mike Pence, and Rex Bell and the still-developing Presidential contest. If Donald Trump leads the ticket, that could certainly change things down ticket, I believe, in favor of Democrats.

The polling is likely correct, but don't get too caught up in it this early.  There's a long way to November.

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