Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Familiar Feel in Indiana's U.S. Senate Race

Rep. Todd Young
Rep. Marlin Stutzman
I have no idea what will happen on May 3, but I know this.

If Todd Young were a mine, he'd be making diamonds.

The Congressman is under attack and under pressure from his own right in the form of Congressman and certified Tea Party favorite Marlin Stutzman.  Stutzman has managed to get to the far right of Young even though Young is pretty far to the right.  The race further right has put Young and Stutzman in some interesting places when they may have to come back towards the center in the fall.

That's because they may not have any top of the ticket help.  If Donald Trump is the nominee, Republicans may hemorrhage votes and they down ticket folks will be left to fend for themselves.  Some forecasts show that a Trump nomination puts Indiana in the position to be a swing state nationally.  With a very unpopular Governor up there at the top of the ticket, Baron Hill has to be smiling.

Baron Hill
This election is starting to look a little like 2012 when it comes to the race for Senate (add in the competitive Presidential Race).  Centrist Democrat (Hill is just to the left of Joe Donnelly but not much) kicks back and waits for Republicans to duke it out in the Primary.  The more moderate Republican (then Richard Lugar) loses and the more conservative (then Richard Mourdock) nominee moves forward only to wilt under the pressure of the big lights.  The Democrat sweeps to victory.

Baron Hill is wise to just stay quiet and stay out of the way of what could be a Republican nightmare on Election Day 2016.

It certainly won't be an establishment crowd out and about on May 3.  That's very bad news for Todd Young.  The money being thrown in the race by the Chamber of Commerce all goes for naught if he loses.

I won't cry for Young if his political career takes a short detour after a loss to Stutzman, but it becomes imperative that Hill wins in November if Marlin is the nominee.  So far, Marlin's all slick "God Made a Farmer" type advertising.  A look under the hood will show you that he's a lot more Richard Mourdock than Richard Lugar.

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