Friday, May 8, 2015

GOP Will Struggle to Find Council Majority in 2015

As of January 2016, it will take 13 seats to control the City-County Council.  By my count, the Democrats are nearly there already before the campaign begins.

With a strong candidate at the top of the ticket, the Democrats could end up with more than just control of the Council.  It could be very bad news for Republicans.

Of course, it's a long way to go until Election Day.  By my count, there are 10 safe Democratic districts on the Council.  By contrast, I can only find five or maybe six safe Republican seats.  Republicans are going to have to pick up seven or eight seats, and I just don't see that happening with Chuck Brewer at the top of the ticket.  Joe Hogsett will have some coattails in close races.

That doesn't mean that Democrats can go to sleep.  I'm assuming that Dems will turn out in the fall to elect a Mayor and a Council.  Democrats must do what they've done under the leadership of Maggie Lewis and continue to govern from the position of what's best for the city over what's best for the party.

I need more time to crunch numbers before I put out my official forecast, but I would say that despite the Republican attempt to keep the Council by rushing these Republican-drawn districts through in the last few moments of the lame duck session, the Republicans have an uphill climb to find the majority.

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