Wednesday, September 17, 2014

"Poll" Shows Ballard in Trouble?

Mayor Ballard
My friend and political sparring partner, Abdul-Hakim Shabazz, publishes a gossip and innuendo newsletter to go along with his official Mayor Greg Ballard Indy Politics page.  The disclaimer says it all...essentially take what you read with a grain of salt.

So, I took my grain of salt, and I read on page six of a recent offering that "a poll" is out showing Mayor Ballard with an eight-point lead over Joe Hogsett.  There was not anything published in the "Cheat Sheet" to explain the methodology of the poll or who conducted it.  It just said there was a poll out.

If this poll does indeed exist, I'd have to say this is very bad news for Mayor Ballard.  First of all, the campaign hasn't even begun, and he has great advantages in name recognition as well as the power of incumbency.  That only gives him an eight-point lead over Hogsett?  If I were Joe, I'd be dancing down Meridian Street.

For a campaigner that works as hard at it as Joe does, an eight-point deficit to start the race is about as surmountable as a speedbump for a walker.  Frankly, it's not much of a lead at all, and, given that we are months away from the 2015 elections, it means that Ballard is likely below 50 percent.  A two-term Mayor below 50 percent?

If I were the Mayor, I'd take one look at this poll and say that I'm going to take a very long trade mission after January 2016.  I'd walk away.  The only man to win a third term as Indy Mayor in the Unigov era is Bill Hudnut, and Joe Hogsett beat the Hudnut machine to win his own term as Secretary of State in 1990.

Ballard opened the 2011 race with a big lead over his then-opponent Melina Kennedy, and Mayor Bart Peterson was widely considered safe in 2007 with a well over 50 percent approval rating at this time in the race.  No one had heard of Greg Ballard at the time.

Just yesterday, I was approached by a longtime well-known Republican who told me that he would love to host a fundraiser...for JOE HOGSETT.  Yeah, the writing is on the wall here for the Republican Party and for Greg Ballard.  This 2015 race doesn't look so good.

Abdul also writes in the "Cheat Sheet" that Greg Taylor has been approached to run for Mayor.  Sources tell me that Taylor, who is in a safe Indiana Senate seat, is likely supporting Hogsett.

Well, I lost my grain of salt.  I have to say, Abdul does write pretty good rumor and innuendo.  I think I do too, but you don't have to pay for mine.

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