Thursday, February 20, 2014

Short Hopes for Long Shot Run at Mayor

Frank Short
A week or so ago, my good friend Christian Mosburg penned a post for Indy Vanguard about how time was starting to tick for someone to get into the 2015 race for Mayor of Indianapolis.

Frank Short must have been listening. The current Washington Township Trustee and former City-County Councillor announced on Tuesday he will seek the Democratic nomination for Mayor.

Short has strong connections to former Marion County Democratic Party Chairman Ed Treacy and owns his own public policy and business consulting firm. He has served on a myriad of public, private, and charity foundation boards. He also has been appointed to several political boards by people of both parties, including Mayor Greg Ballard.  He has a very good basic resume, but Short’s negatives are right up front.  Part of his business is being a lobbyist, and that’s not a particularly well-looked-upon profession these days. Republicans are already attacking him for it. Short also continues to run for reelection as Trustee even as he files for an exploratory committee for Mayor of Indianapolis.  I've always been a believer in one office at a time.

Democrats could do much worse than Frank Short. The problem is, as time ticks, the potential time to raise money and name recognition with Indy voters also lessens. With no field clearing candidate, I think we’re in for a long slating/primary season which will be expensive and allow Ballard a good head start.  Short now gets that same kind of kick by being the first in the pool.

Is it plausible that Short could beat Greg Ballard?  Sure.  Is it going to happen?  If I am being honest, I think he's a long shot at this point.

6 comments:

Paul K. Ogden said...

It's a 56% Democratic county. If he is the nominee he won't be a long shot.

Anonymous said...

You're right that the money and name recognition is a concern.. but if a potential candidate is running for re-election in 2014 and raising enormous amounts of money for, say, a State Rep race, some of that likely isn't for a State Rep race.. just sayin'.

johnnystir . said...

Paul,
Ballard is 2-0.

Anonymous said...

IM betting that Short has never heard of Op R..Ogden ..Really,??? Have you been hanging with Bill Levin again..Ballard a State Rep?

Anonymous said...

IM betting that Short has never heard of Op R..Ogden ..Really,??? Have you been hanging with Bill Levin again..Ballard a State Rep?

Indy Student said...

Without more polling (which isn't going to be done unless, for some odd reason, this race attracts national attention), it is hard to say with any certainty what may or may not happen in a 2015 race.

But we can discuss what has happened.

Mayor Ballard made it through in an anti-incumbent year in 2007 and enough seats on the council flipped so that there was a Republican council joining him. He won a majority of the vote.

4 years pass and Ballard's approval ratings and favorability polls, of the few polls available, are quite high. Yet despite those numbers, he pretty much wins with the same majority as last time.

So on one end, you have a seemingly popular mayor who can't seem to get many more supporters.

On the other end, the supporters he has seem to be supporting him come hell or high water.

So what is a D challenger's path to victory? Is it convincing some of Ballard's supporters to switch teams, or is it getting more supporters to the polls?

Neither are easy tasks, and Ballard has a $300k head start.