Tully also says, in the column, that Mayor Greg Ballard has no reason to run for a third term and should essentially move on. I don’t think that will happen.
While Ballard may not have incentive to run for a third term, he represents the best chance that Republicans have of holding on to the seat. Unless someone else of stature moves in (and I don’t know who that would be) Ballard can raise the most money of any candidate because he starts with the biggest bank account.
We know Hogsett can raise a lot of money. As I’ve said many times, Hogsett’s political rolodex is one that is deep and impressive. Hogsett can and likely would bring in some heavy hitters in national politics to campaign with him and to help him raise a lot of money.
The question will come to whether Ballard feels like putting his undefeated record on the line or not. Since the Marion County Republican Party didn’t back him so much in 2007, it’s questionable whether he would feel loyalty to the GOP in 2011. With his entire record on display, it might be tough for Ballard to walk away without defending it, and Ballard advisor Jen Hallowell hinted a few weeks back that hizzoner is all but sure to run again. I do think this becomes a Democratic seat in 2015 if Ballard decides to sit on the sidelines pending some amazing move-in candidate.
Hogsett is not the only Democrat that can win or that is rumored to be considering a run for Mayor. Ed Delaney said on the floor of the Statehouse that the seat is attractive. Maggie Lewis has been rumored to be at least thinking about it as has Vop Osili. Brian Mahern seemed to start out like fast moving forest fire, but he has since seemed to cool his jets.
2015 is two years off, and there is a lot of time to figure out what Hogsett, Ballard, and others will do. This might be a gross understatement, but I guarantee that this won’t be the last blog post here about this race.