Monday, November 5, 2012

The Magic 8-Ball Almost Knows All...

Presidential elections are inherently political, historical events, so I will spare you the "most important election in history" stuff.  They are all important, and, in that regard, 2012 is not special.  All of that said, it is always an interesting time for politicos.

I have consulted this Magic 8-Ball, and I now know what's going to happen tomorrow when the votes are counted.  Thus, I wanted to share the news.  Here we go.

I asked the Magic 8-Ball the following questions:

Will Mitt Romney win the Presidential Election?  Its Answer:  "My Reply Is No."
I think the Magic 8-Ball is right on target with this one.  I have this election at 299-239 in favor of Obama.  That's my final answer.   I do think Romney has a chance of winning the popular vote with some of the bluest of the blue states having trouble getting votes in due to Superstorm Sandy.  Here's a look at my final map.  Though Alaska and Hawaii don't show up, you can see to the side how I assigned them.



Will the Republicans take control of the Senate?  Its Answer:  "Signs Point To Yes."
I think the Magic 8-Ball is smoking a little crack here.  While it's definitely possible, I think that there will be 50 or 51 Democrats in the Senate when they reconvene.  With Bernie Sanders and Angus King likely winning races in Vermont and Maine, that gives Dems 52 or 53 caucus members.  Watch the races in Wisconsin where Former HHS Secretary, Republican Tommy Thompson and Democrat Tammy Baldwin are neck and neck and Montana where Democrat John Tester is battling for his political career with the GOP's Denny Rehberg.  Virginia's battle with former Governor Democrat Tim Kaine and former Senator Republican George Allen is a battle of heavyweights.  Republicans should maintain their majority in the House.

Will Joe Donnelly defeat Richard Mourdock and become our next Senator from Indiana?  Its Answer:  "Yes"
Magic 8-ball obviously has seen this race trending towards Joe Donnelly over the last few days.  I think you'll see Donnelly eclipse 50 percent and Andy Horning will get five or six percent of the vote.


Will Mike Pence win the Gubernatorial Race?  Its Answer:  "It Is Certain."
Definitive answer from the Magic 8-ball, and I agree with it.  I think John Gregg has done a great job to close in, but I think Mike Pence will be the next Governor of Indiana.  Look for Pence to fall short of 50 percent, though.  Rupert gets four or five percent.  I think it will be 49-46-5 or so.


Will Glenda Ritz be our next State School Superintendent?  Its Answer:  "Ask Again Later"
I'm not making that up, either.  The Magic 8-ball refused to answer this question.  Ritz's campaign has gotten some national attention here over the last week as has Justin Oakley's project to help raise awareness about this race.  I think this will be a barn burner.

Will Carlos May lose in the battle for the 7th District Congressional Seat?  Its Answer:  "Without A Doubt"
Magic 8-Ball strikes again with a definitive answer.  I think it's absolutely right.  Congressman Andre Carson returns to Washington with 52 or 53 percent of the vote.

Will Dave Crooks win the Bloody 8th?  Its Answer:  "Don't Count On It"
This is a tight one, but I unfortunately think that the Magic 8-ball got it right.  Crooks was a great candidate, and he's run a fabulous campaign, but I just don't think he's going to pull this one out.  Larry Buschon wins with about 54 or 55 percent of the vote.

Will Democrats pick up seats in the Indiana Senate?  Its Answer "It Is Decidedly So."
The Magic 8-Ball clearly is predicting Tim Delaney to defeat Scott Schneider.  Also, watch for Mary Ann Sullivan to possibly upset Brent Waltz.  John Barnes and Pat Miller and Mike Young and Mark Waterfill will all be excellent races to watch.

Will Justin Moed win House District 97?  Its Answer:  "Cannot Predict Now"
The second cop-out answer in a close, tight race from the Magic 8-ball.  Personally, I think Moed will win one of the most competitive House races.  Republicans will decidedly have the advantage in the Indiana House and may expand their majority thanks to redistricting to 63 or 64 seats.

Other predictions:
I think there will be a sweep in the Marion County races for the Democrats.  Debbie Jenkins, Claudia Fuentes, and Frank Lloyd will be elected and continue to serve the county.

Despite a big push to get him removed, I think Justice Steven David will be retained.  David was the author of that controversial Indiana Supreme Court decision that essentially invalidated the Fourth Amendment here in Indiana.  I just don't think enough people know about this issue.

As I always do, I'm looking forward to the election returns coming in.  It's almost the big day!

4 comments:

Eric said...

Dave Crooks will win the bloody
8th, and you totally left out
Shelli Yoder in the 9th, who will
also throw out a first-term Tea
Party teabagger. Both will be pulled across the finish line by
Joe Donnelly's coattails.

Stephen Terrell said...

Carnack the Magnificent live. I think you're pretty close to being on point. If among the early states Virginia goes to Obama, I think its a done deal for re-election. If Virginia goes Romney, it may be a long and scary night.

Jon Easter said...

Eric,
I consulted the Magic 8-ball about the Yoder vs. Young race. I asked, "Will Shelli Yoder win a seat in the U.S. House?"

It said, "My sources say no."

I don't know what its sources are, though.

Anonymous said...

I think Glenda Ritz may be the upset winner tomorrow.