Friday, September 28, 2012

Howey/Depauw Poll Holds Heartening, Harrowing Snapshot for Democrats

The latest Howey/Depauw/Battleground poll shows that the Indiana Senate race is extremely close, but the race between other candidates may be slipping away from the D's.

In the poll, Democrat Joe Donnelly leads Republican Richard Mourdock, 40-38, in the race for Richard Lugar's U.S. Senate seat.  Libertarian Andy Horning pulls seven percent in the poll.  The results of the poll are well within the 3.5 percent margin of error.  Fifteen percent of polled Hoosiers remain undecided.

For Governor, the poll says that John Gregg trails Mike Pence by 13 percentage points, 47-34 percent.  Rupert Boneham is polling at a solid five percent.  

Finally, in the race for Indiana's 11 electoral votes, the poll says that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama, 52-40 percent.

The poll was a bipartisan effort combining the efforts of a Republican and Democratic pollster.  It featured interviews with 800 Hoosiers.  

So, what does it mean?

Despite all the efforts by Richard Mourdock, various PACs and Super PACs and by the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, people just don't like the Indiana Treasurer.  Republicans just can't totally support their party's standard bearer who is trying to redefine himself as someone more towards the middle of the political spectrum.  The problem is, he went so far right to defeat Richard Lugar in the Primary, it's hard to get back more to the center now.  Joe Donnelly, the PACs, and the Super PACs behind him are reminding people of that almost every day.  

Horning at seven percent shows that he's a real factor in this race.  He can really swing this thing if he continues to poll at this level on Election Day.

In the race for Governor, I'm actually fairly heartened that the margin is only 13 percent in this poll.  If Gregg can sharpen his attack a bit on Pence and force the Congressman onto the defensive, he can close the gap.  Entering October, it's going to be tough, but with Pence at 47 percent, he's still south of 50 percent.  Boneham at five percent is interesting. 

Finally, recent polls showed Indiana was more in play than previously thought for the Presidential race.  If this poll is correct, it looks like Obama has been wise to not spend money in Indiana.  The 12-point margin with Romney at 52 percent tells me that, no shocker, Indiana is fairly red this year when it comes to POTUS politics.

As these races start to come more into focus, it's imporatant to remember that polls are just a snapshot of a race.  They are just one picture.  That said, Brian Howey's sponsored polling data is usually pretty good.  I think this is a valid look at the race here in Indiana.

1 comment:

HOOSIERS FOR FAIR TAX said...

I strongly supported Mourdock in the primary. I even had a sign in my yard for Mourdock.

That said, due to the treatment of the GOP toward Ron Paul during the primary debates and the primary process itself, I have decided not to waste my vote on the GOP candidates this year.

Although wildly popular, even winning straw polls, Ron Paul was treated like the step child. There was an intentional effort to diminish him by the GOP bosses.

I always vote for the best candidate in any race, regardless of whether or not people think they will win.

Andy is the best candidate in the race.

Maybe the GOP will get its act together and start doing what it preaches it stands for, but I don't hold out much hope.