A recent Rasmussen Poll places Mourdock just two points ahead of his Democratic opponent Joe Donnelly, 42-40. The poll showed 11 percent undecided and is well within the five point margin for error. It's still early, and a lot could happen, but the same poll, in which a wide majority of those called identified themselves as a Republican, showed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with a 51 percent to 35 percent lead over President Barack Obama in Indiana. Mourdock should be running better in a state that has moved so far into the red recently.
While he initially attempted a move towards the center, he's been out and about saying crazy things lately. In a race with a popular third party candidate like Libertarian Andy Horning, Mourdock should be more careful. Even Horning attacked Mourdock's comparison of the auto bailout to slavery. Horning turned to Facebook, posting a link to an article about Mourdock's comments and writing, "I suppose I've been guilty of invoking the usual Hitler and slavery motifs. I try to be accurate, though. This, in the context of a guy managing unconstitutional state funds, is a little over-the-top."
Donnelly is in a good position right now. Unlike Brad Ellsworth's 2010 run, he's right in this thing heading to the late summer and into the fall. This one is going right down to the wire.