Thursday, August 16, 2012

Indy Star Goes Big on Hogsett for Mayor

U.S. Attorney
Joe Hogsett
The Indianapolis Star finally got around to rumormongering what I rumormongered in June that Joe Hogsett may be thinking about running for Mayor of Indianapolis in 2015.

At the time I threw it up there, I was just reporting what I thought made sense and what I had heard.  Of course, the Star has a lot more sources in their Rolodex than I do.

A Hogsett for Mayor campaign, if it happens, would certainly be something to watch.  He's eminently qualified for the job, and I think most people understand that his political Rolodex includes folks like Bill Clinton, Evan Bayh, and many others.  A Hogsett campaign could clear the field of a few possible candidates.

Council Vice President
Brian Mahern
I don't think it would clear out all the candidates.  If you've watched the Council lately, oftentimes it's Council Vice President Brian Mahern that seems to be taking the vocal lead on things.  Most experts and local politicos believe that Mahern wants the job so bad he can taste it.  Of course, the Mahern name is legendary in Indianapolis politics, and Brian has many positives going for him.  I'm not sure that Hogsett entering the race would cause him to drop out.  Mahern has also drawn the most attention from bloggers like Abdul-Hakim Shabazz.  All of that said, he's been right on target on things like TIFs.

Councillor
Vop Osili
I think there's a third big name in the running, and that's Vop Osili.  Vop isn't out running for the job, but I think there are many in the Marion County Democratic Party that would love to see him take a chance at the job.  If I know Vop, he's appreciative of all the attention, but he's also very careful.  He will take his time, talk to people, weigh all the options, and then make a decision at some point.  At this point, I doubt that he's as worried about 2015 as Mahern and maybe Hogsett are.

I mentioned in June that I thought John Layton might be a possible candidate for Mayor, but I somehow think that's less likely these days.  Layton seems immersed in his work as Sheriff at this point, and I doubt that he's given much thought to the possibility.  Councillor Jose Evans, business leader Brian Williams, former City-County Councillor Ron Gibson, and Sam Carson all ran last time around.  I guess they are possibilities again, but they won't generate the kind of interest that others might.

This will be a developing story to watch over the next three years.  It will also be worth watching to see if Mayor Greg Ballard will try for a third term.  Of course, that has been a bugaboo for previous Mayors not named Hudnut in the UniGov era.  I'm sure Ballard knows that.  Ryan Vaughn is certainly one name I hear most often as the Republican candidate for 2015, but there are others, too.

Never a dull moment in political forecasting!

7 comments:

Paul K. Ogden said...

I don't buy for a second that Ryan Vaughn for Mayor talk. Vaughn just doesn't like retail politics. And running against the Democrats next time, carrying the Mayor's baggage which could be considerable, would be a substantial risk with little upside, i.e. an outside chance he coudl win. I think Vaughn will be perfectly happy cashing in and watching others take the risks.

Anonymous said...

If Hogsett decides to run, he would be a great candidate and a great mayor. I would just hope he doesn't tout his relationship with Evan Bayh as many party Dems have a pretty negative view of Bayh. Hogsett can do it on his own without the risks of involving Bayh.

Had Enough Indy? said...

Paul, while I agree with much of your comment... I think if either Ballard or Vaughn run, they will be carrying Vaughn's baggage. Vaughn is making the decisions now.

Jon Easter said...

I have the same concerns about Bayh, Anon 1:23. That said, Bayh can raise a boatload of money.

Anonymous said...

Would Hogsett hire Dan Parker as his chief of staff? Haha. Who's nervous?

William said...

I agree with all of the names that have been mentioned, but one other name I think that people should keep in mind is Joanne Sanders, I am not impying I know anything but I think she would be strong candidate and if someomne like Hogsett does not get in she could be a favorite.

Anonymous said...

In his current role, he needs to completely deny any political leaning and future aspirations for higher office. That kind of talk only makes the judicial branch look like a political hit squad instead of independent branch of government serving blind justice.