Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Prediction Time (Part I)

We are just under 100 days out from Election Day, and, like many other bloggers, I've decided to release some election predictions.  Today, I'll look at the executive branch races on the national and Indiana ballot, President and Governor.  I will revisit these predictions as the election season goes on, so, here we go!

President Barack Obama
In the race for the White House, things remain tight nationally, but it's good news for President Barack Obama that this isn't really a national race with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  This is a group of 50 state races for electors that will meet in each state as part of the Electoral College.  Ignore the national polls, it's the battleground states that hold the key to this one.

I have looked at the polls and the historical trends and this is what I come up with about 100 days out.

I assign the following states for President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden:

California, Colorado, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine (All Congressional Districts), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Washington, Wisconsin, Vermont

I assign the following states for Mitt Romney and his To Be Announced running mate:

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (All Congressional Districts), North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming

Obama/Biden:  24 States plus D.C., 290 Electoral Votes
Romney/TBA:  26 States, 248 Electoral Votes

Romney is TOTALLY in this thing though.  He is one or two critical states from making this thing really close or perhaps turning in a landslide.  For example, if he turns Ohio and New Hampshire red, he's the winner of the election.  If he turns Ohio and Michigan, he wins in a landslide.  It's that close!

Mike Pence
Mike Pence is running a campaign built on date stories and good feelings. 

He’s shown he can ice skate, bob his head while saying he’ll protect your job, support our troops, and exploit a natural disaster. I still haven’t heard much policy discussion. He’s playing from ahead.

It’s up to John Gregg and Rupert Boneham to go get him on a number of issues. Whether or not they can knock Pence off his pedestal remains to be seen. Pence is going to have to make some errors, and we’ve already seen him do that a few times this race.

It’s hard to argue against the idea that this is Pence’s race to lose with just under 100 days to go. Gregg needs to start making a dent and soon or else Pence will be doing ads while he romps with puppies and kitties.

Coming up tomorrow...the legislative races.  

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I think you did a pretty good analysis. Virginia and Florida are pretty shaky if in the Romney. I would not be surprised to see one or both of those in the Obama camp.