Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Mayoral Election Rumors for 2015

Whispered Conversations
in Overcrowded Hallways
Editors' Note:  The following blog post contains unsubstantiated rumor and innuendo.  Do not take any of it as fact.  I am reporting only what I'm hearing through my various political channels.  Take it as informed gossip.

It's never too early to start looking ahead, and the political rumor mill is heating up for 2015, and the possible candidates for Mayor of Indianapolis are interesting.

Of course, the biggest fish in the room is Mayor Greg Ballard.  Winning a third term in office is often difficult and Ballard, at least for show, seemed pretty hard-to-convince at first to run for a second term.  Ballard will only be 60 when the next election for Indianapolis Mayor comes around in 2015.  That's hardly early enough to retire.  Ballard's next three years in office will probably go a long way to determining whether or not he run.  So far, he's been fairly quiet in his second term.  It took him two years to get going last time around, so he'll probably figure out what his second term legacy might be around the middle of next year or so.

Anything Ballard wants to do on his own will certainly be hampered by the fact that he no longer controls the City-County Council.  Democrats, of course, do.  Clearly, by stealing Ryan Vaughn away from the Council to be his Chief of Staff, he knows how important working with the Council will be in these next three years.

I think the chances of him running again are probably about 50-50 at this point.  He certainly, as an incumbent, will have those advantages there.  If his heart is in it, he probably will give it another go.  If it's not, he might turn it over to someone else.  Of course, Ryan Vaughn will be a possibility if Ballard doesn't run.  The bench isn't incredibly deep for the Republicans, but I'm sure there are some people that will step to the forefront.  Look for City-County Councillors like Benjamin Hunter, Mike McQuillen (see yesterday's post) and Jeff Cardwell to play a role if Ballard steps away.  I just predict that one or more won't sit on the sidelines if the Mayor's Office is open.

On the Democratic side, I've heard three names consistently mentioned as interested, and I'm adding in a wild card.  I would ask them, but they would probably tell me they are interested in their jobs on the Council or elsewhere.  Thus, I apologize in advance to them.

Let's begin with Councillors Brian Mahern and Vop Osili.  Mahern and Osili would be strong candidates, and I've heard through back channels that either might be interested in running.  Again, I haven't heard it from either of their mouths, so take this for what it's worth.

Another possiblity is John Layton.  The Marion County Sheriff will have to get through a reelection campaign in 2014, and I'm sure that he won't even think about running for Mayor until after that.  Still, he's built a solid record as Sheriff so far and has broad crossover appeal and respect from Republicans and Democrats.  I've heard through back channels he's someone that might be interested.

I also get the feeling that Joe Hogsett isn't quite done yet, either.  Hogsett pursued the office aggressively for quite a while in 2010 before dropping out of the running to clear the field for Melina Kennedy.  Depending on what happens with President Barack Obama's reelection campaign, Hogsett may be looking for opportunities for 2015.  He made a lot of friends in his run for Mayor, and he would also be an excellent candidate again.  He can't do anything political until he's no longer U.S. Attorney.

There's a long way to go, and I'm sure things will begin to get more clear.  That's what I'm hearing in the rumor mill.  We'll see which rumors become truths and which ones are just rumors.  If you're thinking of running and I missed you, sorry.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

All but one of those would be great candidates. One has let his mayoral ambitions run amok so badly that I think he is burning a lot of bridges in his current positions. He has many political isiders tired of his grandstanding.

Anonymous said...

We were just talking about this last week. Here's my take:

Hog sett is the big dog in the room. If he wants it, he'll get the D nod and he will out campaign anyone. But maybe he's looking at that Senate seat Dan Coates occupies.

Vop, while a great guy, has a name that won't sell. Mahern is justtoomdivisive and his last name isnt without baggage. No slam on either, that's just my opinion. Brian Wiloiams has said no and obviously Melina is done. John Barth may be the rising star in the party, and is no doubt going to be a candidate someday...he's smart, quiet, and very likable. Maggie Lewis would be fantastic, but I am not sure she wants it. I have heard Washington Township Trustee Frank Short is very interested.

Vaughn is all they have on the R side, the rest are waaaay out there.

Just my humble opinion, your mileage may vary.

GETREADY2015 said...

I think Brian Mahern would be able to raise the funds necessary to run a mayoral race.

Anonymous said...

Brian Mahern will implode sometime soon. Even his own party thinks that he's a nut case. Its obvious that he is already campaigning for the position. He seems to follow the cameras around. Once the voters of Indy really get to know Mahern, he will be toast. You can't put enough lipstick on that pig if you now what I mean

Osilis name does not bother me at all, if you have even talked with the man you'll come away saying to yourself, this man is the real deal. We have a President with a Muslim sounding first name, so Im not to worried about Vop

Hogsett may take a shot at it, but he has been out of play on the local level except for a few news conferences. Hes a pretty boy, smart and could run a great campaign against Vaughn. Two boring white guys..there ya go

I think that they will have more than vaughn to choose from.But I bet that he is the chosen one as of now.But the fact that watching paint dry is more exciting than he is could be a factor.

Just my take

Anonymous said...

Vaughn-loved by himself and the insiders whom he benefits, but constituents whom he never deigns to return pleas for help, hate him. Not vox populis(or whatever). He is though, definitely being groomed for the mayor's position. Mark Miles would be a better choice. He would have the experience, wisdom, success,and love from insiders to get the job done.
Dems-Frank Short-not his real last name, by the way, has a LOT of baggage that the feds are just now interested in. He will soon be indicted.
Back to McQuillen-also someone who is on love with the mirror,but has sold himself to so many that there's nothing left to sell, or even give away. He's looking towards the Statehouse.

Anonymous said...

Vaughn-loved by himself and the insiders whom he benefits, but constituents whom he never deigns to return pleas for help, hate him. Not vox populis(or whatever). He is though, definitely being groomed for the mayor's position. Mark Miles would be a better choice. He would have the experience, wisdom, success,and love from insiders to get the job done.
Dems-Frank Short-not his real last name, by the way, has a LOT of baggage that the feds are just now interested in. He will soon be indicted.
Back to McQuillen-also someone who is on love with the mirror,but has sold himself to so many that there's nothing left to sell, or even give away. He's looking towards the Statehouse.

Gene Debs said...

Love Joe H. but why would he want to go through yet another campaign?

Nobody really likes Brian M. and the family brand is getting stale.

Jose E. needs to actually run something other than ambition.

Too early for Zach A. He needs to develop gravitas.

No mention of a proven winner - Terry Curry.

Like Vop O. but not convinced he can win.

Andre C. might be good. He'd be a better king (mayor) maker.

We probably need a new fresh face, a real progressive, and probably a male. Hate to say it, but the City just doesn't seem to want a woman in that job.

Anonymous said...

Who's running from the late Congress woman Julia Carsons camp? RUMOR is...so, my wheels are spinning trying.to figure out who they are saying is running. Duncan? Drummer? Crawford? hmmmm