Tuesday, May 1, 2012

One Week Out: More Questions than Answers

On Sunday, I'm scheduled to appear on Mark Small and Paul Ogden's show, Civil Discourse Now.  Apparently, we'll be making campaign predictions, but I have no idea at this point what to tell you in some of these federal and local races.  

In the U.S. Senate race, it's going to come right down to the finish line, and I just have a bad feeling about Richard Lugar's chances of beating Richard Mourdock.  I think the ship is sailing away from the longtime, respected legislator, and he's besmirching his own reputation in the process.  It's been a poorly-run campaign that has seen Lugar squander a huge lead in campaign cash and be drawn into the mud with Mourdock.  Now, he has Super PACs pulling their support, and his ads are becoming increasingly desperate.  I'm not counting him out just yet, but I'd have to say Mourdock has a better than half chance of winning this one.

The 5th District U.S. House race is crowded, and three of the candidates can't help but attack each other.  Susan Brooks and John McGoff are both ganging up on David McIntosh, and McIntosh is questioning the conservative credentials of Brooks and McGoff.  All the while, a fourth popular candidate is toiling away knocking doors and skating the district.  That's Wayne Seybold, who has remained extremely positive and is, I'm told, popular in the northern part of the district.  That kind of bankable support, if it exists, could make Seybold a wildcard if Brooks, McGoff, and McIntosh are struggling for the same votes.  There are more candidates in the race, but they haven't been able to make much of a dent so far.  I think this race was McIntosh's until it got dirty.  Now, I'm not so sure.

There's not much mystery on the Democratic side of the 7th District race, but the Republican Carlos May is hoping a second run provides him with the votes he needs to face Andre Carson in November.  Steve Davis, Wayne Harmon, Cat Ping, J.D. Minear, and Tony Duncan are all trying to play Marvin Scott to May this time around.  I would think May would win in this field, but I thought he would do it last time, too.  

These three races plus the Republican race in Senate District 35 and both Republican and Democratic races in  House District 92 will be interesting.  The slated vs. unslated candidate race in the Marion Superior Court Judge race also will bear watching.

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