Monday, May 7, 2012

Election Day Eve Thoughts

At 6:00 p.m. on Tuesday, another Primary Election will be in the books, and the landscape of Indiana politics will probably look a lot different than it did at 6:00 a.m. when the day will start.

Richard Mourdock
Of course, the marquee race is the battle for Indiana's U.S. Senate seat.  Indiana icon Richard Lugar is trying to hold on by his fingernails over the surging Richard Mourdock.  It looks increasingly like Mourdock is going to defeat the sitting Senator to claim the Republican nomination.  I think the race will be tighter than the 10-point margin predicted by the Howey Depaw Indiana Battleground Poll, but I agree that Lugar is going down.  I will predict a win by Mourdock with 54 percent of the vote.  Lugar pulls in 46.  Joe Donnelly is unopposed for the Democratic Party nomination.
David McIntosh

Another interesting race to watch is in the newly-drawn 5th Congressional District where several Republicans and two Democrats are trying to gain their party's nod.  I'm going to take Scott Reske to win the Democratic nomination.  On the Republican side, it's not that easy.  Four big name candidates are slugging it out in a nasty, gut-churning battle.  Wayne Seybold, the Mayor of Marion, has kept himself above the fray keeping things positive in his campaign. The other three candidates are battling like Itchy and Scratchy on the Simpsons.  David McIntosh, John McGoff, and Susan Brooks have taken this race deep into the mud.  McGoff has more been dragged in by McIntosh, but McIntosh and Brooks are launching bombs at each other head on.  McIntosh has tried to deflect criticism of his residency by coming up with odd charges against McGoff and Brooks.  Seybold's support in the northern part of the 5th cannot be overlooked.  In this race, I predict that McIntosh slides through by a couple of percentage points over Seybold.  McGoff and Brooks will battle for third with the rest of the field bringing up the rear.  
Carlos May

In other local races, Bob Behning will shake off a Lunch Pail Republican challenge to him in House 91.  I'm predicting Tim Motsinger to win the Republican nomination in House District 92.  He will, in my view, face Karlee Macer in the fall.  In Senate District 35, Mike Young will hold off Daniel Kinnamon for the Republican nomination.  In the 7th Congressional District, Carlos May had to wait two years, but he will finally get his chance to take on Andre Carson in November.

I think that covers it.  Now, we'll see tomorrow how wrong or right I was.


5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Now if only Carlos May can pay off his campaign debts from 2010. Talk about deficit spending.

Anonymous said...

if you look at his FEC reports you will see that that money is money he donated to himself. He does not owe any person or business. Next time be more precise

Anonymous said...

Actually, first "Anonymous" Carlos donated to HIS OWN campaign. How many other politicians do that? He doesn't owe the money to anybody but himself. Did you buy milk today? Then maybe you owe yourself 4 bucks.
Why do people comment when they know nothing about the topic? Anonymous 2, thank you for bothering to check your facts.

David said...

I'll post as myself rather than these "anonymous" folks... Jon, I just wanted to compliment your use of the "Itchy & Scratchy" reference. I agree with your predictions.

David said...

I'll post as myself rather than these "anonymous" folks... Jon, I just wanted to compliment your use of the "Itchy & Scratchy" reference. I agree with your predictions.