Monday, April 16, 2012

Turnout May Determine Close Senate Race

Senator Lugar
It's almost over.

Richard Lugar and Richard Mourdock look to be neck and neck coming down the final stretch in the race for the Republican nomination for Indiana's U.S. Senate seat.

The stakes are high for Lugar.  At stake is his political legacy.  Will he be able to go out of the Senate on his own terms, or will he be retired before he's ready? Mourdock hopes so, and he's running extremely hard to make it happen.  It's a referendum on Lugar, as political expert Brian Howey has said, and the longtime Senator is hoping to weather this political thunderstorm.

Treasurer Mourdock
For Republicans, change is trying to upset the status quo.  For Democrats, it's finally the chance to vanquish the Indiana icon as Representative Joe Donnelly waits in the wings to see the winner in November.  Andy Horning may also play a major part in this, too, as the Libertarian in the race.

Representative Donnelly
If Lugar dispatches Mourdock, Joe Donnelly is way behind in early polling in a possible race with Indiana's Senior Senator.  A Howey/Depauw poll showed that while Lugar leads Mourdock by seven points and only is at 42 percent, he's leading Donnelly 50-29.  If Mourdock wins, Donnelly and the State Treasurer are tied in that same poll.

Everything, however, will come out to turnout on Primary Tuesday.  If the party establishment shows its face and its votes at the polls, that could offset the Tea Party uprising that's backing Mourdock.  If that old guard stays home, Mourdock will be around in November.

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