Thursday, April 19, 2012

Poll Shows Mourdock Pulling Ahead of Lugar

Mourdock Surges Ahead in One Poll
A McLaughlin & Associates poll released yesterday shows that Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock has pulled ahead 42 percent to 41 percent over Senator Richard Lugar in the primary competition for GOP nomination for U.S. Senate.

The same polling company had Lugar up 48 percent to 36 percent in January.  The one point lead for Mourdock was within the poll's five point margin for error and clearly underlines that this race could be a photo finish come May 8.  The poll was conducted on April 16 and April 17 and surveyed 400 likely Republican primary election voters by telephone.

Buried deeper in the polling is even more bad news for Lugar.  His favorability is slipping.  When McLaughlin & Associates did their poll in January, Lugar was seen favorably by 57 percent of voters.  That has now slipped to 47 percent.  Silver lining is that while Mourdock's favorability numbers are improving (up 11 points since January), Lugar still is seen more favorably than the Indiana State Treasurer by one percentage point, 47 to 46 percent.  Again, that's within the margin for error of the poll.

Zero percent of the respondents said that they had "never heard of" Lugar.  That's also not good news for the Senator.  The poll respondents know him, and this race is trending Mourdock anyway and trending his way fast.  At this point, Lugar needs some major help from somewhere.

I'm sure Lugar's camp will say that this is just one poll and that it means little, but the tone and tenor of this campaign has completely changed.  That's a signal.  Lugar's gone really negative, and he's putting his name on it.  That's just not Richard Lugar.  It doesn't sound like the man we've all come to know over the years.

Two things we know about this race from all the details.  It's tight, and Lugar's in severe trouble.

1 comment:

Greg Purvis said...

There are some comments online claiming that this is a "push poll" designed to favor Mourdock. Without seeing the questions, and the sample to whom the questions were given, it is impossible to know if the poll is valid.