Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Obama Still in Good Shape for Reelection

The snapshot looks good , but the President can't kick back.
Despite the fact that his approval ratings are hovering just below 50 percent, President Barack Obama is still beating every Republican that's running today, but that's just a snapshot and there's still a long, long, long way to go.

Real Clear Politics puts Obama's average job approval at 47 percent, and his disapproval rating is 46 percent. With the health care initiative currently in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, that can certainly change.  Obama's handling of the War on Terror is also a probable liability with a wide majority of Americans now believing the War in Afghanistan is not worth fighting.  Add in the economy's slow slogging recovery, and it would seem like a perfect storm for the President's opponents.

Even with the liabilities, Obama leads all challengers in the Real Clear Politics average.  Obama is up 5.3 percentage points on average against Mitt Romney.  That advantage grows to 8.7 percentage points when the opponent is Rick Santorum.  He leads Newt Gingrich by an average of 13.3 percentage points and Ron Paul by seven.  That means that the Republican who does second-best against Obama is the one who is in fourth place right now for the nomination.

This further drives home how weak the Republican field is, but that should not give the President any cause to sit back and relax.  Real Clear Politics still rates 130 electoral votes in the toss-up category in its analysis of the individual states.  Obama is credited with 227 electoral votes, and the Republicans get 181.  That means that if Florida and Ohio break for the President that he would be reelected if you believe the RCP analysis.  Perhaps some of these states move around when the GOP gets a nominee for sure.

Despite everything, the President is looking pretty strong when he could be looking somewhat weak as a candidate for reelection.

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