Tuesday, January 10, 2012

New Hampshire Preview: Romney Must Win Big

As voters go to the polls in New Hampshire for the "First in the Nation" primary election, the big favorite in the polls is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, but he had better deliver on that favorite status with a big win.

Former Massachusetts Governor
Willard Mitt Romney
Romney should win in New Hampshire.  These voters know him pretty well.  He's been a constant fixture in politics in neighboring Massachusetts since 1994, and he ran for President in 2008 targeting New Hampshire heavily.

In that 2008 Primary, Romney did well in counties neighboring Massachusetts, Romney fell short in 2008 to John McCain who used the victory to propel himself forward to the eventual nomination.  Romney got 31 percent of the vote.  Tonight, he should easily outdistance the rest of the field, but the question will be who wins enough support to realistically continue on to South Carolina as well as who finishes in the second place spot.

So far, it's been Ron Paul finding himself riding shotgun to Romney.  He's been right around 20 percent in the polls while the other candidates continue to jockey around.  I think regardless of what happens that Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Perry will continue to South Carolina.  None of them really expect to win there in New Hampshire.  This, however, is gut check time for Jon Huntsman.

I think Huntsman must break into the top four to continue his bid, and it's going to be a close fight for him.  He could conceivably come in as high as second, but it's more likely that Paul finishes second.  I think Santorum's surge from Iowa carries him home in third.  Huntsman slots in fourth with Gingrich behind in fifth.  Rick Perry should have dropped out after failing to make much impact in Iowa, but he clearly doesn't know when to quit.  He will be a distant sixth and probably still go on to South Carolina and make his last stand instead of back to Texas where he belongs.

President Barack Obama continues to be in a strong position for reelection.




6 comments:

HOOSIERS FOR FAIR TAX said...

Can you offer Americans 10 solid reasons why we should re-elect Barack Obama for another term?

Isn't his approval rating lower than even Jimmy Carter's who for many years had the distinction of being the worst president?

If you have reasons why we should re-elect O, I would love to hear them.

And please don't tell me that O ended the Iraq War because we still have 70,000 military contractors over there.

Anonymous said...

As a Democrat I am saying President Obama should start packing now. He is done in Nov.

Greg Purvis said...

@FairTax: Barack Obama is the most admired man in the WORLD:
http://www.gallup.com/video/151775/Barack-Obama-Hillary-Clinton-Top-Admired-List.aspx

Worst President? Not by a long shot. Most hated by the Radical Right? I remember how they ranted at Bill Clinton too, so that is a toss-up, but I suspect that has much to do with YOUR viewpoint.

HOOSIERS FOR FAIR TAX said...

Greg, I'm looking for 10 solid reasons Americans should re-elect Obama. So far, not one is offered.

I advocate for self-reliance, personal responsibility, government accountability, volunteerism, equality, and constitution ruled policy.

I am politically independent and vote for Democrats, Republicans, and Libertarians.

I am not a radical. I loathe hypocrisy and corruption.

HOOSIERS FOR FAIR TAX said...

If I cannot find my 10 reasons on a democrat blog, then reasons to re-elect Barack Obama must not exist.

Jon E. Easter said...

10. He's not liberal; he's not conservative. He's a left-leaning moderate...like Bill Clinton.
9. 3,000,000 new jobs
8. Sticking to President Bush's negotiated deadline for troop removal from Iraq.
7. Beginning to draw down the seemingly endless war in Afghanistan.
6. Got Bin Laden by ordering a boots on the ground raid inside foreign country, incredibly risky and is dealing with crazy regimes in Iran and North Korea by not enraging them...but being firm with them.
5. Progress on Health Insurance for all Americans
4. The economy is showing signs of improvement
3. He's willing to put his electoral future on the line...even if it alienates his own base.
2. He avoids flip flopping on issues, but he isn't so stubborn that he won't consider changing his mind.
1. He believes in social equality for LGBT and other minority groups more than the GOP candidates do or are willing to admit.