Monday, November 7, 2011
Election Eve Predictions
Well, here they are. I may tick some people off with these predictions of major offices, but I am affable, according to Jon Elrod, so please, feel free to disagree.
MAJOR MAYORAL RACES
Indianapolis-Too Close to Call
Yes, this race is too close to call. The large number of undecided voters out there makes it difficult to predict. I think Kennedy's turn to more positive TV messages over the last week was smarter than Ballard's continued pushing of negatives. Tells me quite a bit. Libertarian Chris Bowen also is in the running for your vote. Conrad Cortellini also is running as a write-in.
Beech Grove-Dennis Buckley, D
Beech Grove went Republican a few years ago, and it's been very close since then. I think Dennis Buckley takes the office back for the Democrats and starts to undo the mess that Joe Wright and Terry Dilk have created.
Lawrence-Dean Jessup, D
Jessup should win this race. Paul Ricketts simply does not seem to be well-liked by his own party. He nearly lost a primary race.
INDIANAPOLIS/MARION COUNTY CITY-COUNTY COUNCIL
I think the Democrats will re-take the Council. Best case scenario is, as I see it, 20 seats. Worst case scenario is a bare majority of 15 seats. The races to watch are in District 4, District 6, District 12, District 19, District 20, District 21, and District 24. I believe the Democrats will sweep the At-Large seats.
District 4-Too Close to Call
Democrat Kostas Poulakidas and incumbent Republican Christine Scales have been locked in a neck-and-neck battle. Poulakidas has raised and spent thousands. Scales has gotten some late and, as she says, unwanted help from outside sources. This one is close. Nothing will surprise me.
District 6-Janice McHenry, R
Republican Janice McHenry and Democrat Brett Voorhies are battling here. I talked to Brett a few weeks ago, and he says things look promising for him. McHenry is a great campaigner and a hard worker. Veteran candidate Kevin Fleming is the Libertarian standard bearer. I think the incumbent, McHenry, holds on by a hair.
District 12-Regina Marsh, D
Democrats stayed home in 2007. That allowed a guy like Mike McQuillen to win by a wide majority over Sherron Franklin. That won't happen this year. Regina Marsh has run a tremendous campaign, and I think the competitive race this district has been known for also returns this year. Libertarian Shawn Sullivan could pull votes and swing the race. Regina Marsh defeats the incumbent.
District 19-Dane Mahern, D
Democrat Dane Mahern always seems to hang on by the skin of his teeth. Jeff Miller was not, in my estimation, the best candidate for the Republicans, but they slated him. It was the wrong move. Mahern will hold.
District 20-Frank Mascari, D
Popular Democrat Frank Mascari is battling Republican Susie Day for her Council seat. This one could also come down to a few votes. Both candidates are longtime Beech Grove residents and well-known in the community. I'm going to pick Mascari in a close victory.
District 21-Ben Hunter, R
Democrat Todd Woodmansee challenges Republican incumbent Ben Hunter. Hunter has tried to portray himself as someone who has worked across the lines of the Council. Woodmansee has been out doing the door knocking and the campaigning. I think that ground game will pay off. Libertarian Josh Featherstone is an excellent candidate as well who deserves support. I still think this district leans towards Hunter, but a win for Woodmansee would not surprise me.
District 24-Jack Sandlin, R
Libertarian Ed Coleman, currently an incumbent At-Large Councillor, and incumbent District 24 Councillor Jack Sandlin are locked in a tight battle. Sandlin was booted by Perry Township voters before when he was their Trustee, and he has never been elected to this office. Even with the money the Libertarians have poured in, it's tough to beat a Republican in this district. I think Sandlin stays in office in a tight race.
ONE FINAL NOTE
Please, these predictions are for entertainment purposes only. My crystal ball has been broken before. Get your butt out the door and vote tomorrow. Your vote makes a huge difference!
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