Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Get Ready for Polling Numbers
We are now less than two weeks away from Election Day, and there's no polling beyond internal polling that's been released from the campaigns. Since we aren't privy to those numbers, we have to take them at face value.
This is not unusual. Back in 2007, WTHR released a poll just about now showing Mayor Bart Peterson leading Greg Ballard 43-39 with an error margin of 4.9 percent. Libertarian Fred Peterson, who raised hardly any money and had hardly campaigned, had five percent of the vote. As Bart Peterson told WTHR at that time, "I know it's a cliche, but Election Day is really the only poll that matters."
He was right.
On Election night, Ballard won with just over 50 percent of the vote to Bart Peterson's slighly over 47 percent. Fred Peterson got just 2.3 percent of the vote.
I would ASSUME that you will see some polling be released sometime in the next few days showing us that this is, in fact, a very similar race to 2007. I think it's going to be very close. You can certainly tell by the tactics the campaigns are resorting to these days.
My friend Paul Ogden penned this excellent analysis of what has been a mildly negative affair between Ballard and Kennedy. Only recently have the gloves started to come off over Ballard's use of the words "difficult population" to describe out-of-work African-Americans at a debate over a week ago.
The term spawned a radio ad by the Marion County Democratic Party that Ballard angrily responded to on a later debate on WTLC-AM. Ballard has released a rebuttal ad using some influential African-American church leaders that support him. Libertarian candidate Chris Bowen has been criticizing these church leaders for appearing in the ad for Ballard on Abdul-Hakim Shabazz's Facebook page.
To be honest, though, Ogden's right. The campaigns are mostly staying on message and trying to throw each's interpretation of sometimes the same facts at each other. There's been more back-and-forth here than in any Mayoral race I can remember recently here in the Circle City.
It's a close race. It has to be, so look for those polls...even maybe today. I have a feeling that they're out there or are about to be.