Friday, June 24, 2011

Who's Running For Council?

As far as I can tell, this the way your ballot would shape up in the fall as of this moment on June 24 when it comes to City-County Council. This is based on all the information I can find to date. My rating is in parenthesis. This may change as the year progresses, but I'm looking at what I believe to be given the candidates running. My rating system is Safe, Likely, Leans, or Toss-up. Rating looks at how the district has voted in the past, whether the seat has changed hands, or how the area may be changing. I also make allowances for good candidates. An (I) denotes an incumbent.

At Large Council: (Indy Democrat Rating: Four Seats Lean Democratic)
Democrats: Zach Adamson, John Barth, Pam Hickman, Leroy Robinson
Republicans: Jacqueline Cissel, Michael Kalscheur, Barbara Malone (I), Angel Rivera (I)
Libertarians: Bill Levin, Sherry Meinert, Reid Miller

District 1 (Likely Democratic)
Democrat Jose Evans (I)
Republican Susan Blair
Libertarian Michael Bishop

District 2 (Safe Democratic)
Democrat Angela Mansfield (I)
Libertarian Sam Goldstein

District 3 (Likely Republican)
Democrat Len Farber
Republican Ryan Vaughn (I)

District 4 (Toss Up)
Democrat Kostas Poulakidas
Republican Christine Scales (I)
Libertarian Raymond Vanlanot

District 5 (Safe Republican)
Republican Virginia Cain (I)

District 6 (Leans Republican)
Democrat Brett Voorhies
Republican Janice McHenry (I)
Libertarian Kevin Fleming

District 7 (Safe Democratic)
Democrat Maggie Lewis (I)

District 8 (Safe Democratic)
Democrat Monroe Gray (I)
Republican Stu Rhodes

District 9 (Safe Democratic)
Democrat Joe Simpson

District 10 (Safe Democratic)
Democrat William “Duke” Oliver (I)
Libertarian Joell Palmer

District 11 (Safe Democratic)
Democrat Steve Talley
Libertarian Tom Mulcahy

District 12 (Toss up)
Democrat Regina Marsh
Republican Michael McQuillen (I)

District 13 (Likely Republican)
Democrat Jared Evans
Republican Robert Lutz (I)
Libertarian Jason Sipe

District 14 (Likely Republican)
Democrat Maxine King
Republican Marilyn Pfisterer (I)

District 15 (Safe Democratic)
Democrat Vop Osili
Republican A.J. Feeney-Ruiz
Libertarian Zach Capehart

District 16 (Safe Democratic)
Democrat Brian Mahern (I)

District 17 (Likely Democratic)
Democrat Mary Moriarty Adams (I)
Republican Gary Whitmore

District 18 (Safe Demcoratic)
Democrat Vernon Brown (I)

District 19 (Leans Democratic)
Democrat Dane Mahern (I)
Republican Jeff Miller

District 20 (Toss-up)
Democrat Frank Mascari
Republican N. Susie Day (I)

District 21 (Leans Republican)
Democrat Todd Woodmansee
Republican Benjamin Hunter (I)
Libertarian Josh Featherstone

District 22 (Safe Republican)
Democrat Douglas White
Republican Jason Holliday

District 23 (Safe Republican)
Democrat Scott Coxey
Republican Jeff Cardwell (I)
Libertarian Ken Raquet

District 24 (Leans Republican)
Republican Jack Sandlin (I)
Libertarian Ed Coleman (I)*

District 25 (Safe Republican)
Democrat Mario Garza
Republican Aaron Freeman (I)
Libertarian Kevin Vale

*Coleman is currently on the Council as an At-Large Councillor.

Current Make-up: 15 R, 13 D, 1 L
Predicted Make-up: 16 D, 10 R, 3 Toss-up (as of June 24)

Races to watch: District 4, District 6, District 12, District 19, District 20, District 21, District 24, At-Large

Incumbents not running: Democrat Joanne Sanders (At-Large), Democrat Jackie Nytes (District 9), Democrat Paul Bateman (District 11), Democrat Doris Minton McNeill (District 15), Republican Bob Cockrum (District 22)


Paul K. Ogden said...

Good analysis, though I differ some so obviously your not perfect....joking.

Here are the ones I differ on, using your scoring system.

Dist. 3, Leans R (Incumbent Republican Ryan Vaughn)

Note: "Likely" is too strong. D's are only a few points away from hitting a 50% baseline in Republican. Vaughn will be well-funded but he's not the most personable guy when it comes to retail politics.

District 6, Likely D (Incumbent Repuoblican Janice McHenry))

Note: This is our biggest disagreement. McHenry is a fierce door-to-door campaigner and undoubtedly excels in constituent relations. But there is too much negative to overcome. First, the numbers have slipped dramatically in that district. I bet the D's are closing in on 60% baseline. Second, she is up against a well-known political name who just ran a close race for state legislature. Third, she has a lot of unpopular votes that won't play in that district. I would be shocked if the R's hold onto this district.

Dist 12, Leans D (Incumbent Republican Mike McQuillen)

Note: The numbers have shifted in this district too. McQuillen hasn't done anything to distinguish himself on the council except being a huge rubberstamp for spending and tax/fee increases. The D's have a lot of ammunition against him. I doubt he survives.

Dist 14, Leans R (Incumbent Republican Marilyn Pfisterer)

Note: I think the "Likely" tag is too rich for this district where the Democrat baseline is approaching 45% as measured in 2010 which was a good Repbublican year.

Dist. 19, Leans R (Incumbent Democratic Dane Mahern)

Note: While I'm going to pick Mahern to win because the D's will have the resources to save him given the lack of D targets besides this district, I think at the outset the numbers in the district such that you have to slighly favor the Republican.

Dist 21, Likely Republican (Incumbent Republican Ben Hunter)

Note: The D's definitely have a shot at this district, I just don't think they have enough of a shot to show it only marginally ("leans")Republican.

Anonymous said...

A pretty good assessment. I see a toss up which I think is clearly a Leans Dem and a Leans Dem which is probably more of a Leans Rep. A strong campaign for Melina may bring the tossups home for the Dems.

Anonymous said...

It all depends on the at-larges...since neither side put up any real "community names" or proven vote getters, the council majority will likely be decided by the mayors race. Losing Sanders was a real loss. Not a good electoral strategy.