Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Marion County Democratic Party Releases Memo on New 7th District


If you thought the Marion County Democratic Party was going to bellyache and boo hoo about the new Congressional map for the 7th District, you're wrong.

Executive Director Adam Kirsch sent out this memo after doing some number crunching for Chairman Ed Treacy. It pretty much says it all, and it's good news for Congressman André Carson.

Friends,

Chairman Treacy asked me to perform an analysis of the new 7th Congressional District. While the map certainly isn’t what Democrats would have drawn, we wanted to share the analysis with you as soon as possible. You will see the text of my memo to him below.

For the Party I am,

Adam D. Kirsch, Executive Director

MEMORANDUM
TO: Chairman Treacy

FROM: Adam Kirsch

RE: 2011 7th Congressional District Political Analysis

DATE: April 12, 2011


Based on an analysis of the Marion County Democratic Party database of election results, the new 7th District remains a district Congressman André Carson will be re-elected to for the foreseeable future. The two most recent elections demonstrate that the new 7th is actually more Democratic than Marion County as a whole.
2008 Election

In 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama ignited a Democratic base in Indianapolis on his way to being the first Democratic candidate for President to carry Indiana in 44 years. He took a 90,866 vote lead out of the proposed 7th or 66.3% of the vote. In Indianapolis, President Obama received 63.7% of the vote.

The performance difference between the county and the new 7th carries on at the county level, with an average county ticket performance in the new 7th being 64.3% in contrast to “just” 60.6% in Marion County as a whole.

In short, in 2008, the new 7th was more Democratic than the very-Democratic Marion County.

2010 Election

The 2010 Election was in stark contrast to that of 2008 at the national level, but Marion County Democrats had another great year. Congressman Ellsworth carried 53.0% of the vote in all of Marion County, but in the new 7th, carried 55.6%. The baseline performance countywide in 2010 was 53.65% (underperforming the new 7th’s 56.33%).

The new 7th was more Democratic than Marion County as a whole again in 2010, suggesting that it (like the current 7th) will continue to be more Democratic than the County as a whole in years to come.

Conclusion

While the Republicans in the legislature made an effort to hurt Congressman Carson’s reelection chances, it appears that the new 7th will be a district that will be proudly served by Congressman André Carson for years to come.

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