Monday, August 23, 2010

I Could Be Wrong But...



The polls don't show it yet, but I get the feeling that the Indiana 2010 Senate race is closer than it appears. I just can't put my finger on it, yet.

Some of the most recent polling I have seen has Republican nominee Dan Coats up on Democrat Brad Ellsworth between 15 and 21 points, but I just can't see how that can be right. As I said, I always entertain the possibility that I'm wrong, but I just am hearing things from people that make me think differently. I just can't see how Ellsworth can be polling below 30 percent...as he is in the Rasmussen Poll.

What I'm hearing from my conservative friends is that they just don't like Dan Coats and that they don't really know Brad Ellsworth, yet. My mother, for example, a Republican all the way, told me the other day that she really likes Brad but that she's never liked Coats. I asked her which way she might vote, and she said that she's thinking about Ellsworth right now. To be fair, she was a Bayh voter when he was Governor.

I just am thinking that the campaign is really still stuck in neutral and that Ellsworth's first volley of ads didn't do much to jump it out. More in-depth reporting like what WISH-TV's Jim Shella filed below and more side-by-side comparisons of candidates through the debate season may reveal the truth. Coats is the career politician and lobbyist. Ellsworth is the normal guy that got elected to Congress.



Still, I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Ellsworth will fight hard for the seat, but, if it doesn't work out, he will go back to Evansville and be content mowing his grass. There's something to admire about that.

3 comments:

Paul K. Ogden said...

If it was any other year, I'd favor Ellsworth pulling it out. Coats has too much baggage. But this isn't any other year, it's 2010.

Anonymous said...

After Labor Day, I think we will start to see the swing in the polls........

Paul K. Ogden said...

Remember, a rising tide raises all boats...including those that are leaking.