Sunday, July 11, 2010
Marvin Scott's Math Still Not Adding Up
By Jon E. Easter
Marvin Scott is still touting his totally odd and out of thin air claim that he is within 5,500 votes from beating Congressman Andre Carson and claiming a spot in Congress.
He can tout it all he wants, but the numbers still show by any analysis that it's going to be a tall order to even come close to Carson and no race, not one race, has come down to a margin of 5,500 votes since the 7th District came into existence. No race has come down to a margin less than 9,235 votes.
For the sake of argument, I'll humor Scott. Let's buy his math for a second. Let's say that he truly is somehow 5,500 votes from beating Carson. If that were the case, though, that's a Carson win by 12.4 votes per precinct. He would need, rounding up, 13 votes more PER PRECINCT than in the mythical election he cites to flip over even that result in his favor.
While in theory, Scott could pad his margin in parts of the district, there are some downtown precincts where he will get only a handful or less of votes. For example, in the 2008 General Election, Carson defeated Republican Gabrielle Campo in Ward 1, Precinct 1 by a remarkable margin of 642 votes alone, 645 to 3. Even though Carson lost some outlying precincts by as many as 300 to 400 votes at times, he still defeated Campo by 80,005 votes. That is roughly 180 votes per precinct in Carson's favor.
Let's take Carson's low water mark, his win in the Special Election in 2008 over Elrod. To simply equal Elrod's 9,235 vote loss to Carson, Scott would have to reduce the 180 vote margin per precinct for Carson in the 2008 General Election to a roughly 21 votes per precinct margin.
As far as the closest 7th District race Julia Carson ever was in, that was her 2006 win where she won by 10,076 votes over car salesman Eric Dickerson. That works out, in 2010 numbers to a margin in favor of Julia Carson of roughly 23 votes per precinct.
So, it's going to take a a lot of minds to change in a heavily-Democratic area for Scott to win. So, as much as his campaign wants you to believe it's possible he might win, multiple elections show it's just not very likely. It's also not like Andre Carson is just going to stop being a great Congressman, either. He will continue to work and fight for his constituents each day.