Monday, May 3, 2010

Tuesday Races To Watch


Obviously, every political junkie is ready for the Primary Election Results to start pouring in on Tuesday. With a tremendously interesting number of races coming up, it should be a fun time for those of us that aren't participating in a campaign as a staffer.

Indiana U.S. Senate Race
After a relatively slow beginning, Dan Coats is finally a little bloody after releasing his disclosure statement showing he is rich. What a shock?!???!! A former politician that's been a lobbyist is rich??!?!?!??? Stop the presses. Anyway, Marlin Stutzman has put on a very nice and strong campaign to try to derail the Coats express. John Hostettler has been his normal quiet self while Bates and Behney continue to try to gain traction. I think Coats prevails in a tight race over Stutzman. Brad Ellsworth is the likely Democratic opponent in the fall...as it is all but a formality now that he will be placed on the ballot by the Indiana Democratic Party.

Indiana's 4th District Congressional Race
On the Republican side, there are a ton of candidates battling for Steve Buyer's old seat in a district that has been described as "No Republican Left Behind." Secretary of State Todd Rokita is the favorite with State Senators Brandt Hershman and Mike Young also in the running. In a race with this many candidates, I will take the guy that has the most name recognition. That's Todd Rokita. On the Dem side, David Sanders should dust the two Republicans-in-Democrats clothing.

Indiana's 5th District Congressional Race
Again, it's a battle of Republicans trying to unseat seven-term Republican Dan Burton. Burton may not get 50 percent or anywhere close to it, but I think he gets just enough to put himself over the top. The other four candidates would make good, crazy House members, but I think they cancel each other out and deliver Washington Dan as the Primary winner. In the Democratic race, Nasser Hanna should win the nomination.

Indiana's 9th District Congressional Race
Mike Sodrel and Todd Young are locked in a tight race to see who takes on Democrat Baron Hill in the fall. Sodrel is a former one-term House member, and Young has been a noisy and solid upstart. Sodrel has the name recognition, but he has lost to Hill more times than he has won. Can the 9th stomach another matchup? I will pick a close upset in this one with Todd Young advancing to face Hill in the fall.

I will take a look at Marion County's hotly contested races including the 7th District Congressional race tomorrow on the day of the Primary.

2 comments:

radar said...

I think the entire country is watching the Senate Republican primary battle. Me, I am rooting for Marlin. I guess Ellsworth would have to trip over a John Edwards or something to avoid being the Democrat choice. I cannot wait for Stutzman-Ellsworth!

Marycatherine Barton said...

In Nov., I expect Carson to be reelected, but will be surprised if Indiana sends any other Democrats to Congress next year. Most probably, Coats will be a US Senator, again.