Friday, February 12, 2010

Coats Might Not Be Warming Republican Chances of Toppling Bayh


Former Senator and registered lobbyist Dan Coats confirmed that he is indeed running against Senator Evan Bayh, but the big name may not be (at least in one case) bringing big polling numbers.

Research 2000 conducted a poll for the Daily Kos that showed Bayh comfortably in front of Coats 55 percent to 35 percent. Among the critical independent vote, 64 percent said that they would vote for Bayh over Coats, and even 28 percent of Republicans would choose the incumbent over the challenger. Amazingly, the same poll also showed that John Hostettler might be the better candidate run as Bayh led him 53 percent to 37 percent. Bayh leads Hostettler among independents 61 to 27.

It appears that the early hard hitting ads by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee may be eroding the public's favorable opinions of Coats. On 38 percent of the 600 likely voters surveyed said they had a favorable opinion of Coats. 34 percent had an unfavorable opinion. That compares to Bayh's 61/33 favorable/unfavorable rating amongst the same voters.

Polling numbers this early in the race mean little, but it does indicate that Bayh is more popular in this poll than Republicans may have thought. With a substantial war chest of campaign funds and anything but a liberal voting record, Bayh still seems to play well amongst Hoosiers...at least in this poll.

Incidentally, the poll also rated the favorability of other Indiana political figures and President Obama.

FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE
BAYH, FAVORABLE 61 PERCENT; UNFAVORABLE 33 PERCENT; NO OPINION 6 PERCENT
HOSTETTLER FAVORABLE 40 PERCENT; UNFAVORABLE 33 PERCENT; NO OPINION 27 PERCENT
COATS, FAVORABLE 38 PERCENT; UNFAVORABLE 34 PERCENT; NO OPINION 28 PERCENT
GOVERNOR DANIELS, FAVORABLE 56 PERCENT; UNFAVORABLE 34 PERCENT; NO OPINION 10 PERCENT
SENATOR LUGAR, FAVORABLE 64 PERCENT; UNFAVORABLE 29 PERCENT; NO OPINION 7 PERCENT
PRESIDENT OBAMA, FAVORABLE 46 PERCENT; UNFAVORABLE 49 PERCENT; NO OPINION 5 PERCENT

1 comment:

Jolie Mason said...

I've been a long time Bayh supporter, but this year I may bow out! If Coats runs against him, I don't know what my choices are, bad and badder. Bayh has mishandled his time in Washington this time around.

The last mailing to pop up in my email sent me into spasms. Conservatism, I get, however what I'm seeing from my representatives in Indiana is pandering to the conservative vote, which is a dishonest thing altogether. Guess I'm just part of that eroding base everyone keeps talking about.