Thursday, November 5, 2009
Results of Tuesday's Election Don't Bear Any Resemblance To Republican Representations of Them
If you talk to Republicans, they are touting their big victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, and they probably should be. There's no doubt that those were extremely big victories for the Republican Party. You add in that the New Jersey victory came over rich incumbent Jon Corzine, and you have an even bigger win for the R's there. Still, Republicans want to extend those victories out to be referenda votes on Barack Obama. That's ok, but they have to look at the full picture or Tuesday night. They aren't. On the national level, the DEMOCRATS actually were the winners.
Democrats picked up another special election house seat. After the complete implosion of the Republican Party and the ouster of a moderate Republican candidate named Dede Scozzafava days before the election, the longtime Republican stronghold in upstate New York now known as the 23rd Congressional District is now in Democrat Bill Owens' hands. He won a close race over Conservative candidate (endorsed by Republicans) Doug Hoffman 49 to 45. Owens capitalized on Scozzafava's sudden withdrawl from the race on Halloween and the Republican Civil War that caused it (conservatives in the party backed Hoffman rather than the moderate Scozzafava) to go to Congress.
Democrats also held California's 10th Congressional District with the very weakened state Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi defeating Republican David Harmer despite a great deal of effort Republicans expended in attempting a win. Imagine, a state in as much trouble financially as California, having its Lieutenant Governor win a Congressional race.
Then, potentially the most surprising race of the night, Independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's razor-thin re-election margin of victory over Democratic City Comptroller William Thompson, 52 to 48 percent. Bloomberg was expected to coast to a win over Thompson, but the voters have now taken a bite out of Bloomberg's political capital.
So, what's in the details? Democrats pick up one seat in the House. Republicans pick up two new gubenatorial seats. Independent Bloomberg holds on despite a tough challenge.
Looks like to me, last night was a bad night to be an incumbent in the northeast. That's all. This is hardly the 1994 revolution John Boehner was spouting off about the other day. If I were Barack Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi, I'd be worried about the results, but I would also say that there's nothing in this results to cause a full-fledged panic about 2010 just yet...at least not a year out.