Monday, July 13, 2009
Ballard Strikes Back?!??!!!!???
Friend of the blog Abdul-Hakim Shabazz (the host of Abdul in the Morning on 1430) and a pretty reasonable guy most of the time has written on his blog, Indiana Barrister, that all may not be lost for Greg Ballard.
The blog post says that Ballard's in no mood to step aside and that polling has been done that shows several positive indicators for the Mayor. I'm not sure where the polling came from, Abdul doesn't say.
One of the most surprising aspects of the polling, as Abdul reproduces it (having said he has not seen the hard data), shows that Ballard would likely win an election today by a similar margin as he won in 2007. It also shows, according to Abdul, that the Mayor is doing well on crime and that voters polled feel that Ballard is competent and a "good man but doesn't connect with them emotionally."
This poll flies in the face of what has been written about Ballard and the 2011 Mayoral race in Republican and Democratic circles. The fact that no exact polling source is cited makes me raise an eyebrow about the soundness of the polling data. If this is, for example, an internal Ballard poll, he may be suffering from the "don't tell me no bad news" syndrome. Abdul also writes that Ballard scores well with Republicans and moderate Democrats. I find that last portion hard to believe.
I would love to see the hard data, and I hope Abdul will publish it when he gets ahold of it. I am extremely shocked by these numbers, and I truly think there must be some problem in the data or the mechanism of the poll. For example, what questions were asked? How were they asked? What was the sample size, and who was interviewed? I think that this poll might be a shot across the bow of fellow Republicans that might be thinking about running for Mayor against Ballard in the primary.
No matter if the poll was slanted or stilted, Democrats too need to realize that winning an election over a well-funded incumbent will be difficult. I think sometimes we on the left side of the ledger just think that the office is ours for the taking. I've been guilty of that. Ballard, I believe, still scores "nice guy" points with the crowd, and perhaps folks are more willing to forgive him for any mistakes because of his political neophyte status. The Democrats will also likely have a protracted primary season with some candidates not deciding to follow the party line and bypassing slating. One way or another, it looks like 2011 will not be your normal municipal election.
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